No election with multiple candidates has ended in one round. The two candidates facing off in the second round always pleads with the third-placed candidate. This was what happened in the country’s first multi-party election in 2008 and the second election in 2013 as well.

In both elections, the person that both candidates courted was Jumhooree Party (JP) leader Qasim Ibrahim. Contesting as the JP candidate after leaving former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP), Qasim took 15.32 percent of the vote in 2008. After leaving the coalition government formed in that election and leading efforts to overthrow it, Qasim won more votes in 2013 with 23 percent.

The constitutional case that changed the entire character of the election was submitted to the Supreme Court by Qasim. Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) candidate Abdulla Yameen, who came second in the first round, won that election after Qasim threw his support behind the PPM.

In the 2018 election, Qasim joined the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and contributed to President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s victory.

Qasim unable to win even 5 percent

Saturday’s election saw the most number of candidates in the presidential elections since the new constitution was adopted in 2008. This election could be seen as the most challenging to Qasim for that reason. In previous elections, he competed against two strong candidates but in this election, there were three such candidates. 

They were President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih from the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), Dr. Mohamed Muizzu from the People's National Congress (PNC) and Ilyas Labeeb from The Democrats, a new party formed by former president Mohamed Nasheed.

Competing against these candidates, Qasim got 2.55 percent of the vote in this election. With this result, it could be said that Qasim would not be too important to the candidates contesting in the second round.

Democrats win seven percent six months after formation

With his defeat in the MDP primary, Speaker Mohamed Nasheed first formed a new faction called ‘Fikuregge Dhirun.’ As the MDP was split and some members stood behind Nasheed, the MDP leadership did not appear to pay much attention.

Even when he expanded the effort and formed the new party called The Democrats, some MDP senior officials did not take it too seriously. Criticism from the MDP campaign was also only aimed at opposition candidate Muizzu.

Proving the MDP wrong, Ilyas took seven percent of the vote with a strong campaign by Nasheed. That is more than 15,000 votes.

Considering the outcome, both candidates in the second round would have to seek the endorsement of The Democrats in order to win. As leader of the party, Nasheed is the new “kingmaker.”