As the dust settles on a year defined by tobacco smuggling scandals; from the MVR 122 million heist to corruption within our own ports, the government’s response has been predictable. They promise "zero tolerance." They promise "stricter enforcement." They promise that next year, they will finally close the net.

But as we look toward 2026, we must face a hard geographical truth: The Maldives cannot police its way out of this problem.

The Maldives consists of 1,192 islands scattered across 90,000 square kilometers of ocean. We have vast, porous borders that have historically been a nightmare for customs and coast guard operations.

To believe that we can stop the smuggling of small, high-value items like vape cartridges or cigarette packs through "better enforcement" is a fantasy. It would require a navy the size of a superpower and a customs force in every channel. We have neither.

If you need proof that geography defeats enforcement, look at Singapore. It is one of the wealthiest nations on earth, with a tiny land border and one of the most sophisticated, well-funded police forces in existence. They have strict bans and draconian penalties.

Yet, Singaporean authorities admit they are fighting a losing battle against tobacco smuggling. If a surveillance state like Singapore cannot seal its borders, why does the Maldives with a fraction of the resources and infinitely more complex geography believe it can?

The black market exists not because the police are lazy, but because both policy and enforcement is broken. When you ban smoke-free alternatives and tax cigarettes at rates the average citizen cannot afford, you create a profit margin so massive that smugglers will always find a way in. Tobacco has now become one of the most lucrative commodities for smugglers, gangs and organized crime in Maldives.

We cannot win this war on the sea, so we must win it in the market. The only way to dismantle a black market is to render it obsolete.

The government could pivot from a "police strategy" to a "pricing and regulation strategy."

Regulate Smoke-Free Alternatives: Establish clear, balanced regulation for smoke-free alternatives, including vapes, nicotine pouches and heated tobacco products, with safety standards, age restrictions and pricing structures that clearly differentiate them from combustible cigarettes.

Kill the Incentive: When legal, safety-checked products are available and affordable, the profit margins that sustain illicit trade collapse. Demand shifts away from “Telegram dealers” and other informal sellers as there is no longer a reason to seek them out.

The smugglers are banking on the government sticking to its ban. They know that as long as the market is illegal, they own it. It’s time to take that business away from them, not with speedboats, but with smart policy.